Assess whether improper payments are estimated or actual (216418)

Situation

Improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly arrived with log sources that were not retained past 30 days for IG improper-payments investigator. That is a US Federal AI Governance Vendor Risk decision on improper payments are estimated in an IG shop scoping a whistleblower allegation.

Decision

IG improper-payments investigator in an IG shop scoping a whistleblower allegation must choose Improper payments are estimated / Actual using improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly after log sources that were not retained past 30 days.

Hypotheses to test

• IG improper-payments investigator can defend Improper payments are estimated from improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly after log sources that were not retained past 30 days in a US Federal challenge.
• IG improper-payments investigator cannot defend Improper payments are estimated from improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly; Actual is what the extract actually supports after log sources that were not retained past 30 days.
• Log sources that were not retained past 30 days never reached the population in improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly — reopen intake, do not close improper payments are estimated.
• Two facts in improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly after log sources that were not retained past 30 days conflict for IG improper-payments investigator; hold this AI Governance Vendor Risk file.

Analysis required

• Normalize pricing and CPARS/QASP evidence that actually supports improper payments are estimated.
• Compare PTW and compliance gates in improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly to a pursue / partner / no-bid split.
• Test OCI and SAM.gov status before an IG shop scoping a whistleblower allegation commits.
• For this US Federal AI Governance Vendor Risk file, read improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly against log sources that were not retained past 30 days and write the one fact that would move improper payments are estimated for IG improper-payments investigator.

Recommendation

Choose Improper payments are estimated / Actual on this US Federal / AI Governance Vendor Risk packet (improper-payment sample that will not extrapolate cleanly after log sources that were not retained past 30 days). The follow-on AI Governance Vendor Risk action is what IG improper-payments investigator does next: implement the option, assign an owner, and log the missing fact.